BMC Ecology and Evolution

Table 4 Occupied and modelled range sizes and extinction risk estimates for Cyclamen. Range sizes based on Grey-Wilson's maps [26].

From: A phyloclimatic study of Cyclamen

	Present range	Bioclim 2050			Maxent 2050
Species	(km2)	(km2)	loss %	kappa	(km2)	loss %	kappa
C. africanum	53,365	622	99%	0.385	18,577	65%	0.493
C. balearicum	35,690	1,128	97%	0.227	10,503	71%	0.508
C. cilicium	59,724	1,873	97%	0.141	14,282	76%	0.545
C. colchicum	7,451	0	100%	0.897	1,731	77%	0.326
C. coum	453,333	291,502	36%	0.052	77,132	83%	0.352
C. creticum	18,936	0	100%	0.816	9,497	50%	0.566
C. cyprium	15,796	0	100%	0.518	8,233	48%	0.433
C. elegans	28,917	0	100%	0.211	3,692	87%	0.337
C. graecum	168,892	71,513	58%	0.222	85,270	50%	0.444
C. hederifolium	967,928	473,241	51%	0.321	183,213	81%	0.624
C. intaminatum	14,273	0	100%	0.875	2,379	83%	0.528
C. libanoticum	2,562	0	100%	0.667	0	100%	0.067
C. mirabile	15,321	0	100%	0.254	12,286	20%	0.585
C. parviflorum	11,742	0	100%	0.769	2,362	80%	0.437
C. persicum	157,919	71,234	55%	0.290	71,535	55%	0.526
C. pseudibericum	14,767	1,249	92%	0.226	12,336	16%	0.605
C. purpurascens	440,025	232,490	47%	0.255	150,037	66%	0.601
C. repandum	513,568	285,493	44%	0.255	67,739	87%	0.625
C. rohlfsianum	34,573	0	100%	0.717	22,218	36%	0.800
C. somalense	6,797	0	100%	0.720	5,292	22%	0.480
C. trochopteranthum	27,769	0	100%	0.204	22,836	18%	0.285
Total	3,049,350	1,430,346	53%	0.430	781,149	74%	0.484

Present day models for BIOCLIM and Maxent algorithms examined within 2050s climate scenarios with restrictions of limited dispersal. Kappa statistic for present day models compared with Grey-Wilson maps.

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