Table 2 Posterior probabilities for different scenarios regarding the mutation rate (2a) and tree topology (2b) models

Considered scenario

Mutation rate

Posterior probability

Topology 1 (North-to-South)

Slow

0.10

Standard

0.90

Topology 2 (South-to-North)

Slow

0.11

Standard

0.89

b)

Considered scenario

Expansion scenario

Posterior probability

Standard mutation rate

Topology 1

0.88

Topology 2

0.12