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Table 4 Model comparison using marginal density and Bayes’ factor. Marginal density and p-values were output by ABCtoolbox for each of the three models, while the Bayes’ factors were computed between each pair of models. (3,000 best simulations retained (1 %) from 300,000 simulations, 100,000 for each model)

From: Computer simulation of human leukocyte antigen genes supports two main routes of colonization by human populations in East Asia

Model Locus HLA−A HLA−B HLA−DRB1
Southern-origin model p-value 0 0 0
Marginal density 3.58E-27 1.93E-90 198
Pincer model p-value 0.01 0.05 0.08
Marginal density 0.79 1.17E4 1.22E6
Overlapping model p-value 0.07 0.08 0.24
Marginal density 8.20E3 6.00E7 4.99E10
Bayes’ factor in favor of Pincer model to the Southern-origin model 2.20E26 6.06E93 6.16E3
Bayes’ factor in favor of Overlapping model to the Southern-origin model 2.29E30 3.12E97 2.52E8
Bayes’ factor in favor of Overlapping model to the Pincer model 1.04E4 5.12E3 4.09E4