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Table 4 Posterior probability of each scenario and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) based on the logistic regression approach for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analyses considering the groups of populations of CALY, BREE and SCHI mistletoes. Simulations and ABC analyses were performed considering both nrDNA and cpDNA sequences

From: A mistletoe tale: postglacial invasion of Psittacanthus schiedeanus (Loranthaceae) to Mesoamerican cloud forests revealed by molecular data and species distribution modeling

Scenario Posterior probability 95 % CI Type I error Type II error
1. Null model 0.6728 0.6565–0.6891 0.08 0.002
2. Isolation split model 1 0.0095 0.0000–0.0430   
3. Isolation split model 2 0.2586 0.2219–0.2954   
4. Isolation split model 3 0.0570 0.0258–0.0882   
5. Isolation with admixture model 0.0021 0.0000–0.0360   
  1. Evolutionary scenarios are as follows: (1) null model (scenario 1) three populations (Pop1, Pop2 and Pop3) have diverged simultaneously from an ancestral population at t1, which corresponded to the plant genetic groups, BREE, SCHI and CALY, respectively; (2) isolation split model 1 (scenario 2), in which Pop1 (BREE) merged with Pop2 (SCHI) at t1 and subsequently with Pop3 (CALY) at t2; (3) isolation split model 2 (scenario 3), in which Pop3 merged with Pop2 at t1, then both populations merged with Pop1 at t2; (4) isolation split model 3 (scenario 4), in which Pop3 merged with Pop1 at t1 and then both populations merged with Pop2 at t2; and (5) isolation with admixture model (scenario 5), in which Pop2 was generated by admixture of Pops 1 and 3 at t1, then Pop1 merged with Pop3 at t2. Habitat type abbreviations are as follows: SCHI cloud forests from San Luis Potosí to Oaxaca and Chiapas, CALY xeric vegetation in central Oaxaca, BREE tropical deciduous forests in Chiapas