Lineage isolation in the face of active gene flow in the coastal plant wild radish is reinforced by differentiated vernalisation responses

Table 3 Tests of the nested demographic models

Model	Log(P)	df	2LLR	p
θ _A θ _S θ _N m _S = m _N	7.405	1	10.38	**
θ _A θ _S θ _N m _S = 0 m _N	10.03	1^a	5.136	*
θ _A θ _S θ _N m _S m _N = 0	8.692	1^a	7.805	**
θ _A θ _S θ _N m _S = 0 m _N = 0	−2066	2^a	4157	**
θ _A θ _S = θ _N m _S m _N	10.18	1	4.837	*
θ _A θ _S = θ _N m _S = m _N	7.626	2	9.936	**
θ _A θ _S = θ _N m _S = 0 m _N	6.952	2^a	11.28	**
θ _A θ _S = θ _N m _S m _N = 0	0.9607	2^a	23.27	**
θ _A θ _S = θ _N m _S = 0 m _N = 0	−2084	3^a	4192	**
θ _A = θ _S θ _N m _S m _N	3.166	1	18.86	**
θ _A = θ _S θ _N m _S = m _N	0.5361	2	24.12	**
θ _A = θ _S θ _N m _S = 0 m _N	−89.13	2^a	203.5	**
θ _A = θ _S θ _N m _S m _N = 0	−148.7	2^a	322.5	**
θ _A = θ _S θ _N m _S = 0 m _N = 0	−2723	3^a	5472	**
θ _S θ _A = θ _N m _S m _N	−11.45	1	48.1	**
θ _S θ _A = θ _N m _S = m _N	−17.2	2	59.59	**
θ _S θ _A = θ _N m _S = 0 m _N	−227.4	2^a	480	**
θ _S θ _A = θ _N m _S m _N = 0	−65.72	2^a	156.6	**
θ _S θ _A = θ _N m _S = 0 m _N = 0	−3210	3^a	6445	**
θ _A = θ _S = θ _N m _S m _N	−34.8	2	87.86	**
θ _A = θ _S = θ _N m _S = m _N	−42.18	3	102.6	**
θ _A = θ _S = θ _N m _S = 0 m _N	−236.9	3^a	492.1	**
θ _A = θ _S = θ _N m _S m _N = 0	−171.5	3^a	361.2	**
θ _A = θ _S = θ _N m _S = 0 m _N = 0	−3238	4^a	6494	**

24 nested models (no migration and equal population size) were compared to the full model (significant migration and different population size; θ _A, θ _S, θ _N, m_S and m_N). ‘Log (P)’ is the posterior probability of the model given data; ‘2LLR’ = 2× (Log(P)_{nested model}-Log(P)_{full model}), ‘df’ is the difference in number of parameters between nested and full model except where marked with ^a (in which case models have distributions of 2LLR that are a mixture), ‘p-value’ is the probability of achieving the test statistic (2LLR) by chance under the null model. The models with p < 0.05 represent rejection of the models.*, p < 0.05; **, p < 0.01
θ _A, θ _S, θ _N are the effective population sizes of ancestral population, southern population and northern populations, respectively. m _S and m _N are the gene flow from northern to southern lineage and southern to northern lineage, respectively

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