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Table 3 Parameter estimates from IMa2 population divergence model (scaled by mutation rate)

From: Multi-locus sequence data illuminate demographic drivers of Pleistocene speciation in semi-arid southern Australian birds (Cinclosoma spp.)

   

Time

Population Size

Migration

Scaled by mutation rate, μ

IMa2 Mode

LLR

tμ

4Nμ (C. clarum)

4Nμ (C. castanotum)

4Nμ (Ancestral)

mμ from C. clarum to C. castanotum

mμ from C. castanotum to C. clarum

Full dataset

Highest Posterior

MCMC (M-mode)

 

0.551

2.226

0.675

0.013

0.091

0.200

HPD Lower

  

0.353

1.496

0.373

0.000

0.000

0.018

HPD Upper

  

0.803

2.249

1.169

0.593

1.438

0.725

1. Full model

Nested models (L-mode)

-

0.5437

1.869

0.779

0.001

0.000

0.952

3. Coalescent migration rate zero from C. clarum to C. castanotum

 

0.000

 

1.869

0.779

0.001

[0.00000]

0.952

2. equal migration rates

 

1.805

 

2.653

0.742

0.000

0.264

[0.264]

Putative C. clarum ‘fordianum’ removed from analyses)

Highest Posterior

MCMC (M-mode)

 

0.527

2.138

0.656

0.009

0.138

0.213

HPD Lower

  

0.333

1.406

0.358

0.000

0.000

0.016

HPD Upper

  

0.774

3.192

1.141

0.574

1.569

0.778

  1. Presented here are highest posterior estimates and 95 % upper and lower posterior density bounds of parameters scaled by mutation rate from MCMC analyses (M-Mode); and joint posteriors and log likelihood ratios of nested models that could not be rejected, ranked highest to lowest (L-mode). M-mode analyses are averages of seven independent runs for the full dataset and three independent runs with putative C. clarum fordianum removed. L-mode analyses are based on a total of 300,000 genealogies combined from seven independent analyses