Fig. 3

Predictors of Chinese AIV spatial diffusion. The inclusion probabilities (IP) shown in the bar plots are defined by the indicator expectations which reflect the frequency at which the predictor is included in the model and therefore represent the support for the predictor; The predictors with Bayes factor (BF) are indicated with the corresponding BF value (those with BF < 5 are not shown); The contribution of each predictor, when included in the model is represented by the conditional effect sizes (cES) and 95% HPD on a log scale (ßi|δi = 1). The zero line not included in the credible intervals indicates the positive correlation (on the right, above 0) or the negative correlation (on the left, below 0)