Fig. 7

Probability of model 1 to 4 occurrence. Each model is followed by a brief description about their demographic history. Mogou and Hengbei are serial sampled at ~4000 and ~3000 yr. BP, respectively, and dashes indicate the uncertainty in whether they have direct modern descendants. In contrast Northern Han has solid line to the present-day. The probability (0-100%) of each model occurrence is assigned using AR (acceptance-rejection) and LR (logistic regression; details see main text)