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Table 1 Biogeographic models analyzed in BioGeoBEARS. Each dispersal or vicariance scenario was tested using the six models available in BioGeoBEARS (DEC, DEC+J, DIVALIKE, DIVALIKE+J, BAYAREALIKE, BAYAREALIKE+J)

From: Towards a synthesis of the Caribbean biogeography of terrestrial arthropods

Time Period of ModelGeologic Events Reflected in ModelMODELS 1: Without GAARlandia | 2: With GAARlandia
a: Dispersal probability decreases as distance increasesb: Distance does not affect dispersal probabilityc: Probability of overwater dispersal is very low
A: 3 my – presentComplete closure of the Central American Seaway and uplift of the Isthmus of Panama [18].A1a | A2aA1b | A2bA1c | A2c
B: 23 my – presentFirst collision between southern tip of Central America and northwestern South America [19].B1a | B2aB1b | B2bB1c | B2c
C: 15 my – presentSignificant land above sea level or complete closure of the Isthmus of Panama [19, 20].C1a | C2aC1b | C2bC1c | C2c
D: 8 my – presentShoaling of the Central American Seaway from 12 to 7 my [21]; land bridge nearly complete by 10 my [32]. * We chose to use this intermediate period to account for the gradual closure of the Central American Seaway and its uncertainty after 15 my and before 3 my.D1a | D2aD1b | D2bD1c | D2c
E: 23–15 my AND 3 my – presentThis model emulates dispersal possibilities during two periods: that of the first contact of South America and Central America, followed by the full closure of the Central American Seaway.E1a | E2aE1b | E2bE1c | E2c
F: 15–8 my AND 3 my – presentThis emulates dispersal possibilities during two periods: during a time when there may have been a significant amount of land, followed by the full closure of the Central American Seaway.F1a | F2aF1b | F2bF1c | F2c
G: 8–5 my AND 3 my – presentThis emulates dispersal possibilities during two periods: a time when there was shoaling of the Central American Seaway and an increase in land area of the Isthmus of Panama, followed by the full closure of the Central American Seaway.G1a | G2aG1b | G2bG1c | G2c