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Fig. 5 | BMC Evolutionary Biology

Fig. 5

From: Mid-Cenozoic climate change, extinction, and faunal turnover in Madagascar, and their bearing on the evolution of lemurs

Fig. 5

Comparison of profiles. a AICc profile of tests for large-scale extinction in RPANDA. AICc scores from models that feature constant speciation rates and allow extinction rate to vary as a function of an environmental variable. The model that had a sharp increase in extinction rate at 34 Ma was best but was statistically indistinguishable from other models with extinctions at similar times (black points on grey shading) and moderately better supported than all other candidate models (dashed lines indicate ΔAIC of 4). Grey points show AICc of models with temperature and its rates of change influencing extinction rate and null model; white circles show AICc of models with time-varying speciation and extinction rates. b AIC weight profile for models with extinctions compared to null model. c Bayes Factor profile for timing of extinctions with 95% extinction (95% CI: 91–99%). d Bayes Factor profile for timing of extinctions with75% extinction (95% CI: 50–93%). e 2 Bayes Factor profile for timing of extinctions with 5% extinction (95% CI: 6–52%). Grey shaded areas indicate times at which moderate amount of support for extinction is found

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