Figure 1

Expectation under different models. Location of New Caledonia in the South Pacific (panel B). Different models of diversification expected under different models of the origin of the biodiversity in New Caledonia (panel A). A Pure Birth model where speciation (λ) is constant and extinction (μ) equals zero is expected under the museum model, corresponding to a Lineage Through Time (LTT) plot closely resembling a straight line. A Birth-Death diversity dependent model is expected under the recolonization model corresponding to a LTT plot showing a slowdown of diversification. Several diversity-dependent models exist and we depict here a model where extinction rate is constant and speciation rate decreases as a function of the number of species.