Hypothesis | Stepping-stone sampling | BF for H14 | Path sampling | BF for H14 |
---|
ln(H14) | −15934.63 | NA | −15933.89 | NA |
ln(H20) | −15934.94 | 0.6 | −15934.45 | 1.2 |
ln(H25) | −15936.31 | 3.4 | −15935.68 | 3.6 |
ln(H50) | −15952.21 | 35.2 | −15952.00 | 36.2 |
- Path and stepping-stone sampling was used to estimate the marginal likelihoods of divergence models inferred with BEAST. Bayes factor tests were made between the 14 Mya origin of Acacia thrips (best model = H14) and alternative timings based on penalised likelihood and Bayesian inferences. A BF indicates the strength of support for the best over the worst (ln) model.