Model name | Ln marginal likelihood | Log Bayes factor | Model probability |
---|---|---|---|
Step stone from coast | −5900.7 | 0 | 1.0 |
Source-sink from west | −5940.5 | −79.6 | 5.1E−18 |
Source-sink from inland | −5941.5 | −81.6 | 1.9E−18 |
Step stone from inland | −5944.9 | −88.4 | 6.5E−20 |
Parameter | Median | Mean | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|
θ ‘Inland’ | 4.11 | 4.25 | 2.55–6.28 |
θ ‘West’ | 0.55 | 0.56 | 0.12–0.96 |
θ ‘North’ | 0.51 | 0.52 | 0.05–0.95 |
θ ‘South’ | 0.27 | 0.22 | 0–0.55 |
M ‘West’ → ‘Inland’ | 0.41 | 0.45 | 0–1.16 |
M ‘North’ → ‘West’ | 0.3 | 0.26 | 0–0.6 |
M ‘South’ → ‘West’ | 0.19 | 0.08 | 0–0.41 |